A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
